_kaperoni: Tonight’s chat is a “where we at chat?” I felt with all the recent rumors and rates, I should discuss this and as well bring out some recent articles. I will stay clear of the Government of Iraq tonight and stick just to articles that pertain to the RV.
kaperoni: First article…
kaperoni: Panel discuss with representatives of the World Bank and the ministries concerned progress in the implementation of projects financed from the Bank in Iraq - Tuesday 17-01-2012
kaperoni: Quote…
kaperoni: “Find an adviser in the Office of the Prime Minister during the regular meeting of the Commission on monitoring the implementation of projects financed by the World Bank on grants and loans, progress in the implementation of projects financed from the Bank, and ways to address the constraints and difficulties facing the implementation mechanism,…”
kaperoni: This is great news. The World Bank is staying on top of the plan. Making sure these guys do what is asked of them. I love it when I read “monitoring the implementation”.
kaperoni: And another quote…
kaperoni: “…discuss the reasons for the existence of gaps between planning and implementation…”
kaperoni: Good quote. They want to know WHY these guys are behind. Why they cannot get along and move the reforms along on schedule. IMO they are trying to rein them in. Get them back on track.
Read More Link on Right
kaperoni: And this article…
kaperoni: Consumer society: Iraqi call for activating the disabled Consumer Protection Act since its enactment in 2010 - Tuesday 17-01-12
kaperoni: This article slipped out and few saw it. This is a great article for us.
kaperoni: Quote…
kaperoni: “Iraq society Director drew for consumer protection need to activate my Al-Mussawi, the consumer protection act and supporting the national economy this year.”
kaperoni: This organization is calling for the economic reforms. Specifically the tariffs and policies associated that overall when implemented provide higher quality products to the public. But the key is this next quote…
kaperoni: “Added: improved purchasing power of the citizen and consumer protection plays in the economic situation,…”
kaperoni: We all know “improved purchasing power” is related to the exchange rate of the dinar. And they are calling for it. To improve the “economic situation” Pretty straightforward and highly needed in Iraq.
kaperoni: Next article…
kaperoni: Central bank: the high price of the dollar will affect the Bank reserves - Sunday, January 2012
kaperoni: For weeks now we have heard conflicting reasons for the large currency auctions and subsequent dollars being pumped into the market. In reality, it dos not matter what the reason is, just that it is happening.
kaperoni: Quote…
kaperoni: “Central Bank of Iraq marked increase in the price of the dollar for the sale and purchase against the Iraqi dinar (b fierce attack) on the currency in Iraq, stressing that the continued rise will impact negatively on bank reserves from the dollar.”
kaperoni: This is very true. The auctions in recent weeks have ranged from 200 million to 300 million. That is lots of USD going back into the banks in iraq. And subsequently lowering the CBI’s reserves. Reserves that just a month ago, Shabibi himself was telling everyone he had amassed 60 billion.
kaperoni: Another quote…
kaperoni: "The rise in the price of the dollar was expected"
kaperoni: Well this is interesting…IMO you take this then as this activity is part of the plan. As if they where saying…we knew the dollar was to become stronger, forcing the dumping of the dinar. So then most of the articles about the recent auctions could be a “cover” of sorts for what is really happening?
kaperoni: Another quote…
kaperoni: "…the rise in dollars during this period may be to fund the needs not of the Iraqi economy, but needs outside of the Iraqi economy,…”
kaperoni: This is an example of the possible cover to explain the large auctions and dollarization. Or maybe not. But again, the point is that it is happening, not so much why.
kaperoni: And another…
kaperoni: “He stressed that "the rise will affect the central bank reserves,…"
kaperoni: Clearly confirming what I stated. That these recent auctions, and the dollarization going on is going to effect the CBI’s reserves. So then the question is..How long will Shabibi tolerate this? Would he be willing to lose his reserves over this? Or would he just RV, and reverse this activity? Let’s get more confirmation…
kaperoni: The next article…
kaperoni: Dollar trading phenomenon invading Iraqi markets - 17/01/2012
kaperoni: Quote…
kaperoni: “Many trading the U.S. dollar in most commercial transactions within the Iraqi market,…”
kaperoni: This quote is more confirmation that we are on track. That the recent article over the past several months that discuss the condition of the dinar are in fact, true. So much so, that Iraq is again dollarizing. Most commercial transactions are done in dollars tells it all. But let’s see if we can get more proof…
kaperoni: Another quote…
kaperoni: “…it is no longer limited to the shops banking, which were approved,…”
kaperoni: Wow. Pretty good stuff. The dollar is the currency once again in iraq. Shabibi’s currency auctions in recent weeks has for the most part, eliminated the dinar, and made the dollar the currency of choice.
kaperoni: Another quote…
kaperoni: “…economic activities carried out most of their transactions in dollars instead of the Iraqi dinar, this is payment of most segments of society to embrace the phenomenon of dollarization,…”
kaperoni: Well, that sums it up. The Iraqis must know something is coming. As the quotes says…”most segments of society to embrace the phenomenon of dollarization” Clearly, these symposiums discussed more than just the new dinar..They must have told them the process to accomplish this event and encouraged them to embrace the dollar. This would not be a success IMO, unless it was short term. The Iraqi’s will become disenchanted with the CBI’s policies.
kaperoni: Next quote…
kaperoni: “…even butcher or fishmonger or restaurant owner accept to pay him the dollar, and sometimes exceed dealing Baldolaraly the dinar, and this causes confusion and in multiples of the national currency and reduces the moral worth…”
kaperoni: Pretty good. The dedollarization has made it’s way to mainstream Iraq and as well down to the butcher, fishmonger or restaurant owner (candlestick maker? lol). Shabibi has had success preparing for the RV. And this next quote is what we were looking for…
kaperoni: “…what I see in the market that merchants and citizens have confidence in U.S. dollars more than the Iraqi dinar…”
kaperoni: That is about as factual as your going to get. And that is not what Shabibi wants in the overall plan. In fact, just the opposite but IMO a necessity to achieve his goal. To delete the 3 zeros.
kaperoni: Next quote…
kaperoni: “…we face a security situation difficult depends basis of financing terrorist operations in which to get through funds from abroad and at home, these amounts will not be in Iraqi currency but U.S. dollars globally traded to buy weapons and other equipment this side, side Alachritalq restore the confidence of the Iraqi dinar…”
kaperoni: This economist states a real potential issue. That if they continue the dollar for an extended period of time, there is a high probability that the dollar will be used to finance terrorism. That in itself I am sure is also on the mind of Shabibi. That also would imply that Shabibi cannot sit in a dollarized environment for a long period of time. In other words, we should be expecting this RV to be coming soon.
kaperoni: Quote…
kaperoni: “…if it continues the phenomenon (dollarization) the currency in this way the broad markets and trading will remain the Iraqi dinar suffers from the dominance of the dollar because of customer confidence in this currency, and ease of use, and therefore, there should be new laws governing the structure of the currency in Iraq,…”
kaperoni: Again, another great quote explaining the effects. But as well stating that they need the “laws” in place. IMO, it appears that Shabibi is very close to RV’ng the currency. But at the same time, we know as stated in previous articles, and again here…That at least 1 law must be passed prior to the RV.
kaperoni: Next quote…
kaperoni: “The continuing phenomenon of dollarization of the Iraqi market and the duplication of transactions in different currencies, something negative needs to implement the program is able to restore confidence in dinars,…”
kaperoni: Pretty clear. He is calling to restore confidence in the dinars. Only one event will do that.
Last quote…
kaperoni: “…and this negative phenomenon means that there are flaws in the domestic economy and international relations, will lead to a deterioration of the currency market, locally and externally,…”
kaperoni: This is exactly what is happening. This is effecting the local economy as well as their ability to do international transactions. There is only one solution.. And it appears to be close. This last question is telling…
kaperoni: Question…
kaperoni: “Do you have any solutions to the phenomenon of trading foreign currencies in the Iraqi market?”
kaperoni: Answered…
kaperoni: “The solution lies in the application of the most prominent project to delete the zeros for the restructuring of the dinar…”
kaperoni: Do you all see that?
kaperoni: There is only one solution to this issue.
kaperoni: Done
kaperoni: Thanks all
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