Update regarding Iraq and
Chapter VII
The UNSC June Update for Iraq is a precursor to what
will be discussed in the High Level Coordinators
meeting come mid June. The High Level meeting
occurs ever 6-months to discuss Iraq-Kuwait relations.
In my opinion the information given in this report
somewhat mirrors what we have already read in news
reports published from Iraqi and Kuwait news
agencies. Unfortunately it remains somewhat vague as
to what was actually agreed upon and considered
resolved. In some reports it would appear all issues
were completed but some news reports would read
I know many are hopeful Iraq will emerge from
Chapter VII in June 2012. Its a strong possibility that
could be the case.
However considering the news reports neglect a clear
consolidation of the facts it is a strong possibility Iraq
will remain under sanctions until the remaining issues
are resolved.
The four options reported in the UN update and are
possible outcomes of June meeting:
Link: http://wp.me/pZC7o-dNs
What these possible outcomes suggest is
1. The UNSC could acknowledge the strides both
countries have taken to restore peace between
the two nations
2. The UNSC could encourage Iraq to continue
resolving unsettled matters or loose ends prior
to hearing any move to lift Iraq from Chapter VII
sanctions
3. The UNSC could extend the coordinators efforts
an additional 6-months allowing Iraq and
Kuwait to continue mending relations
4. The UN could tell Iraq needs to continue
resolving the differences with Kuwait before
Chapter VII is lifted.
In my opinion if the UNSC starts the meeting positive
and goes with Option 1 this is the only hope Iraq will
emerge from Chapter VII this June..meaning if the UN
acknowledges the efforts made between Iraq and
Kuwait and IF these efforts are sufficient then its
possible the UNSC could move to lift Iraq from Chapter
VII sanctions.
However its a possibility the UNSC is prepared to
acknowledge the efforts of Iraq and Kuwait but will tell
Iraq it must settle the remaining issues which exist
(whatever those may be).
They will then reschedule another High Level
Coordinators meeting in December 2012…Unless
something different is planned.
Considering 3 out of the 4 possible outcomes are
leaning more toward Iraq needing to resolve
outstanding issues it would appear there is less than
a 25% chance Iraq will emerge from Chapter VII in
June 2012.
Keep in mind..if the UNSC decides not to lift Iraq from
Chapter VII in the June 2012 meeting that doesn’t
mean Iraq and Kuwait cant go back to the drawing
board and come to full resolutions sometime prior to
December 2012.
If that should occur Iraq and Kuwait could call for a
special meeting to discuss this matter.
If these matters funnel to the end of 2012 it will be
one of multiple events taking place in the latter
portion of 2012.
1. New Iraqi currency is said to begin its printing in
September 2012
2. Kuwait PM is scheduled to return to Iraq to discuss
further relations with Iraq later in the year, presumably
prior to December 2012.
3. Another UNSC High Level Coordinators meeting in
December (possible)
4. Currency reform is scheduled to take full effect in
January 2013.
I will caveat all of the above is my opinion and
anything is possible. These are interesting and
exciting times so stay tuned!